The threat of climate change on human society and the biosphere as a whole has emerged as a critical and urgent issue. The impact of climate change on human production systems is already being felt as increasingly erratic weather conditions upset agricultural production patterns.

The global warming experienced by the Earth today is attributed by scientists to the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, which today far exceeds the normal levels needed to warm the earth. Since the mid-1800s, the average temperature of the Earth has significantly risen and the 1990s was the warmest decade ever recorded.1

It is ironic that though climate change is largely caused by the unsustainable production and consumption patterns of industrialized Northern countries, it is the people of the South who suffer the most from its effects. Resources were plundered by global corporations and local elites through a history of colonialism and globalization, worsening the plight of the poor. People living in poverty are deprived of or separated from productive resources, making it more difficult for them to adapt to extreme and rapid weather changes. Even current global solutions to climate change problems remain inaccessible to the poor as these are market-based solutions and not premised on genuine human development.

Implications for small farmers and fisherfolk

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is likely to lead to some irreversible impacts. The rural poor, who account for a large percentage of the world’s poor, stand to be adversely affected because of their high dependence on natural resources for their livelihood and their limited capacity to adapt to a changing climate.

Around 60% to 80% of the populations in poor countries engage in small-scale agriculture. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that over 90% of the 15 million people working in coastal waters are small-scale fishers, apart from the tens of millions of the poor who fish inland rivers, lakes, ponds, and even rice paddies.2

In agriculture, adverse changes in biodiversity that translate to imbalances in the food chain, further decrease resources available for the poor both for livelihood and nutrition. There may be increases in disease epidemics for both livestock and crops, and rise of fungal and bacterial diseases for vegetables like tomatoes, potatoes, and beans. The resulting mud and stagnant water due to heavy rains may favor development of foot rot, foot and mouth disease, and liver flukes. Leaching, water run-off and flash floods will most likely render soils less fertile for agriculture. In the highland areas, the intensity and frequency of the rains are most likely to cause landslides.3

Temperature increases will cause desertification and bring about shortages in water supply in some areas. In contrast, flooding and inundation will be experienced by countries with many coastal areas such as the South, East and South-East Asia. For farmers and fisher people living in coastal areas, a one-meter rise in sea level would be enough to flood their dwellings, farm areas, and marine resources.

In the face of growing population demands, crop yields are predicted to decrease by up to 20% in large parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. The geographical boundaries of agro-ecosystems as well as species composition and performance will change markedly. Migratory patterns of fish stocks are changing, undermining marine ecosystems which are a primary source of protein for millions of the poor in coastal communities and small island states.4

Even small rises in temperature will increase the risk of hunger in poor countries due to negative impacts on food production and availability. The stability of the food supply is likely to be disrupted by more frequent and severe climate extremes, especially in many regions that are already vulnerable. Availability of food may be affected negatively by increases in pests and diseases in crop, livestock and humans, as well as by reduced water availability and water quality.5

Proposed adaptation and mitigation measures for agriculture

Several international treaties have been adopted in the last three decades to mitigate the projected impact of climate change. Of particular concern among world leaders is the impact of climate change on agriculture and the direct implications for world food production and food security especially in Third World countries.

Mitigation and adaptation measures to meet ecological, economic, and socially sustainable goals towards achieving food security and poverty reduction have been identified by the World Food Summit, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Mitigation refers to action to reduce emissions or the causes of climate change. Adaptation refers to efforts to lessen the vulnerabilities of the Earth and the people to the negative effects of climate change.

In agriculture, mitigation strategies involve reduction of non-CO2 gases through improved crop and livestock management and agro-forestry practices, enhanced soil carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via reduced tillage, and soil biomass restoration. Adaptation strategies include the promotion of organic farming as an alternative to the current agricultural methods applied in most farms across the world. 6

Short, medium, and long-term policy proposals for adaptation and mitigation were also identified, but the major issue since then has been funding. Financing for possible adaptation and mitigation measures in developing countries remain far from adequate and channeled through donor-controlled mechanisms.

People’s alternative

Prospects for developing countries and their population – the majority of which comprises small farmers and fisherfolk in the rural areas – on adapting to climate change and applying mitigation measures are uncertain. While developed countries led by the EU have been supportive of the Kyoto Protocol and the UNFCCC as well as the market mechanisms introduced to meet GHGs emission targets and provide financial assistance to developing countries, these are primarily driven by incentives to profit from climate change through the carbon market.

There has been no meaningful transfer of technology nor has there been substantial financial assistance to assist developing countries in the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. While a number of mitigation measures have been proposed, they are yet to be proven effective.

Developed countries who are parties to the Kyoto Protocol, and the United States which did not ratify it, continue to drag their feet in cutting GHG emissions. There is also a glaring lack of responsibility in assisting poor countries despite the clear and resounding fact that their plunder of the Earth’s resources is behind global warming. Indeed, developed countries bear most responsibility for environmental catastrophes and climate change, which deepen poverty and human suffering among the world’s poor.

There is an urgent need for small farmers and the poor population of developing countries to organize and assert their sovereignty over their natural resources. Developing countries must unite and demand that developed countries – especially the US – redress the environmental plunder their transnational corporations have wrought by unconditionally fulfilling their obligations as articulated in the UNFCCC.

Every option – financial and technological including research and development – should be provided to developing countries free from any conditionality. Market-based solutions driven by capitalist profit motives will not resolve climate change. The issue requires genuine reforms that entail sustainable practices of natural resources utilization, and adopting appropriate technologies as determined by the actual development needs of the people.

References

1 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
2 Food and Agricultural Organization. “Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security” (May 2008. Readings for the High Level Conference on World Food Security: The Challenge of Climate Change and Bioenergy, Rome June 2-5, 2008)
3 “Uganda: What Experts Say of the Floods Ravaging Us” in The Monitor (Kampala, 14 October 2007; posted to the web 15 October 2007 (http://allafrica.com/stories/200710150490.html))
4 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
5 loc.cit.FAO (2008)
6    ibid

Rosario Bella Guzman is the Executive Editor of the IBON Foundation